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Thursday, November 17, 2011

Reading the Signs of Earthquake in the Air

Barrage of questions over to Edwards Taufiqurrahman, an alumny of Physics Department, Andalas University, after making a presentation in front of physicists at the "National Seminar on Physics" on the campus of the Andalas University, Padang, last October. The findings reveal peculiarities Edwards atmosphere ahead of the massive earthquake that tickled the audience.

If the findings of Edwards was right, the strangeness of the atmosphere can be utilized as an earthquake early warning that can save hundreds, even thousands of human lives. During this earthquake experts have not been able to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes.
The road cracks after the earthquake in West Sumatra. (Picture from: http://antaratv.wordpress.com/)
Edwards found that atmospheric anomalies when he studied archives of Kototabang Aerospace Observation Station, Institute of Aeronautics and Space Agency (Lapan), which recorded activity in the upper atmospheric layers for the study of communication during the past year. This layer of the ionosphere-so called-is a place charged atoms or molecules caused by violent crushing of solar radiation. The influence of the sun makes the number of ions in the atmosphere changes with the daily cycle.

The regularity of these ions towards two major earthquake damaged that she had learned. In the massive earthquake that struck Padang on 30 September 2009, the concentration of ion concentration on weaker than usual. The largest decrease occurred before noon, leaving a large basin on a daily cycle curve. "The decline in the concentration of the ionosphere occurs since two weeks before the earthquake," said Edwards.

The strangeness of it also occurs in another large earthquake. On March 6, 2007, the ground shook Solok to 6.3 on the Richter scale, killing 70 people and destroyed thousands of homes. Two weeks earlier, the ion concentrations in the atmosphere also decreases. These changes are recorded by the radar Kototabang atmosphere. From these two events, he suspects there is a relationship between earthquakes and ion concentrations in the atmosphere.

Physicists from the Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics in Moscow, Russia, Sergey Pulinets, has an explanation of the phenomenon found in the sky Sumatra. He called the mechanism of seismo-ionosphere.

Like the staging of art, nature had set the stage before the appearance of the earthquake. Changes occur due to mounting pressure on both sides of the fault or plate.

This stage is referred to as the preparatory stage of earthquakes. Field experience shows the length of the earthquake preparation area associated with large earthquakes is formulated in an empirical formula. From this formula, Pulinets magnitude earthquake could have predicted would happen.

Great pressure to create heating the soil in an instant or the formation of small cracks in the ground. From this narrow gap, a variety of liquids and gases out of the bowels of the earth.
Principles of detection the earthquake using atmospheric radar. (Picture from: KORAN TEMPO 3707)
One is a gas that escapes from the bowels of the earth in the event it is radon. Gases commonly found in all regions in the Earth's surface is a product of uranium decay. Human senses are not capable of detecting gas odorless, colorless, and these are radioactive.

When released into the ground, radon decays produce high-energy alpha rays and can ionize gas molecules in the Earth's surface so that the surface becomes more charged.

When viewed in the context of the atmosphere, the ionization of gas molecules on the surface of the ground causing a voltage difference with the plasma contained in the ionosphere. Pulinets calculation shows, this difference can reach 250-500 kilovolts.

Due to this difference, the ions in the upper atmospheric layers of interest near the soil surface. The concentration of ions in the ionosphere to be reduced drastically.

"Reducing the concentration of this is seen by radar or satellite monitoring atmospheric ionosphere shortly before the earthquake," said Pulinets.

According to "him, the preparatory stage of earthquakes in the soil can last for several months before the earthquake. Special decrease in atmospheric anomalies, generally occurs one or two weeks before the earthquake, or similar to that found by Edwards in two Sumatra earthquakes.

The preparation of this earthquake, said Pulinets, residents should be utilized to prepare for an earthquake. For 20 years researching the arrival of the earthquake signal, Pulinets recorded five massive earthquake that strongly suggest the existence of earthquake preparation period leading to anomalies in the air, such as Aceh earthquake in 2004 and Tohoku earthquake in 2011.

In the Tohoku earthquake, Pulinets see another unique phenomenon in the atmosphere. Using satellite Demeter, he witnessed the atmospheric temperature increases before the earthquake.

Temperature rise is related to the presence of water vapor condensed due to the presence of ions involved in the surface soil. This condensation process generates heat that radiates at infrared wavelengths.

Of large earthquakes, the Pulinets to the conclusion that the earthquake prediction must involve a variety of signs. There are many other signs that must be taken into account in addition to anomalies in the atmosphere.

Activity to predict earthquakes, said the Russian scientist, like analyzing the disease in the human body. Inspection done thoroughly, begin counting body temperature, blood tests, tomography, to colonoscopy.

Seepage of radon gas, for example, can be read by means of radioactive counter is placed in the earth's surface. If the tool is installed, the researchers could find an increase in radon gas in the earth's surface and find the earthquake preparation area. This information can be useful for predicting the magnitude earthquakes will happen.

Earthquake researchers from the Research Center Geotechnology LIPI, Herry Haryono, said the prediction of earthquake seismologists studied a small part is still to be deepened. "The earthquake is a complex event, predictions using the mechanism of seismo-ionospheric still need to be developed," said Herry. "But we appreciate this effort." *** [ANTON WILLIAM | KORAN TEMPO 3707]
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